Arizona Fall League Rising Stars Break Stats
With the Rising Stars game tonight at 8pm, we are three weeks into the 2012 Arizona Fall League season. Below you will find the lines on Jays prospects, who have been playing alongside their farmhand counterparts from the Diamondback, Nationals, Rockies, and White Sox organizations for the Salt River Rafters (11-9).
As per Shi Davidi, Sam Dyson will be the only Jay on a Rising Stars roster. Dyson, however, has already reached his 2012 innings limit so he will not see further action this season. The remainder of the Jays contingent will enjoy a well-deserved weekend off.
If you get MLB Network you can watch the Rising Stars game live. If not, you can endure the Gameday here.
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Interview with Kevin Pillar — Arizona Fall League Standout
Thanks for taking the time to answer a few questions today, Kevin.
I see you’re originally from the Los Angeles area. Were you a baseball fan growing up? At what point during your early exposure to the sport – be it at the little league, PONY, Babe Ruth, or High School level – did you realize you could have a future as a ball player?
Being from Los Angeles, I grew up as a Dodgers fan. Some of my favorite moments as a kid were going to Dodgers games with my family and friends and I remember developing a love and passion for baseball at a young age watching and attending these games. It wasn’t until my senior year of high school when I decided that maybe I could have a future in baseball. At the point in time my focus turned from being an athlete playing football and basketball in high school, to working towards finding a place to play collegiate baseball.
In 2010 Pillar set an NCAA Division II record with the Toros, racking up a 54 game hitting streak, just six shy of the all-division mark (gotoros.com)
You attended Cal State – Dominguez Hills before joining the Blue Jays farm system as a 32nd Round pick in the 2011 draft. You were also recruited by such schools as Loyola Marymount, Fresno State, UCLA, Gonzaga, Sonoma State, New Mexico State, and Nevada. With the benefit of hindsight, it appears that Cal State served as an excellent springboard into a professional baseball career. What separated Cal State from the rest?
Fresno State was a school I really wanted to go to because my brother was a student there and I thought it would be way cool to attend college with my older brother. UCLA was also a dream school of mine ever since I was a little kid. The reason I choice Cal State Dominguez Hills was because they gave me an opportunity to play there, while at all these other schools my future as a ball player was not guaranteed. Cal State Dominguez hills also gave me an opportunity to come in right away and earn playing time. I also had an instant connection with Head Coach Murphy Su’a who remains a close mentor of mine.
During your junior year with the Toros you were able to sustain a 54-game hitting streak, setting a Division II record. I guess I have to inquire into that amazing accomplishment. Once your streak got into 20’s the 30’s – flirting with school and conference records – it appears you gained a lot of attention. In the 50’s you had the Los Angeles Times writing about you. What was that experience like for you? How were you able to keep accumulating knocks amidst all the attention and hype?
That experience of that hit streak was unlike anything else that I had ever experienced in my life. First, the baseball aspect of being locked in for 54 for straight games and being able to help my team reach and host a regional tournament was very special. The hit streak, like you mentioned, did not necessarily gain a whole lot of attention until I closed in on the school record at 23. Following that, the streak kind of took a snowball effect as it reached the conference record at 33 games. After that, the snowball became bigger then I would have ever thought when the Los Angeles times came out for an interview. I will admit, throughout the whole process I did not feel the pressure of breaking this record until the night before games 49 and 50, which was a Saturday doubleheader that would not only allow me to tie the Division II record, but also break it. Needless to say, I was able to accomplish it. The streak will definitely go down as an incredible journey and highlight in not only my baseball career, but my life.
Your streak ended in the CCAA Conference Tournament, when you were 0-for-2 with a groundout and fly out in your first two at bats. In your last two at bats of that game, however, you were intentionally walked and hit by a pitch. Revelry of setting a collegiate record aside, was that frustrating for you; having the bat taken out of your hands on in both at bats and not being able to end the streak on your own terms? I know you were close to the all-division hitting streak record of 60 games.
Yes, it was definitely extremely frustrating because UCSD was a huge rival of ours with whom we accumulated some bad blood. Anytime you have a chance to make history or accomplish something you would like your outcome to be determined by something you did, rather than something you did not have a chance to do. The ironic thing about this was it was the only time that we beat UCSD that year.
It can difficult for student athletes to balance athletic obligations with academic responsibilities. What did you major in at Cal State? Also, as a professional athlete, have you suddenly found yourself with an abundance of free time, or is training and competition much more consuming than it was in college?
I majored and completed my degree in business with an emphasis in sports, entertainment, and hospitality. I would definitely say you have a lot more free time as a professional athlete compared to being a collegiate athlete, but a lot of that free time is used towards bettering your career such as training, working out, and treatment.
Pillar’s numbers with Rookie-class Bluefield basically mirror his senior year numbers with Cal State- Dominguez Hills (basebalhotcorner.com)
You began your time in the Blue Jays system with Rookie-class Bluefield of the Appalachian League. With Bluefield, you led the league with a .347 batting average. You were also able to rack up 17 doubles, three triples and 37 RBIs. It looks like you picked up right where you left off in your senior year with Cal State when you hit .369 with 6 homeruns, 21 doubles, 3 triples and 36 RBIs. How did the level of play in the Appalachian League compare with that of your Division II schedule?
The level of competition was definitely better than what I faced at Cal State – Dominguez Hills. That is not to discredit the competition at the Division II School I played for, but rookie ball was definitely the next step up. I would say the principles and attention to detail that I learned at CSUDH helped me achieve success in my first professional season.
You started your 2012 season in Class-A Lansing where you obviously excelled, posting a .322 batting average with 5 homeruns, 57 RBIs and 35 stolen bases before your elevation to High-A Dunedin in mid-July. How did you enjoy playing in Lansing? I know Cooley Law School Stadium is one of the largest Class-A parks in the United States.
I really enjoyed my stay in Lansing. Lansing is an awesome town, with a high baseball IQ and passion for the game. Cooley Law School Stadium, although was a tough park to hit balls out of, was definitely a cool place to call home while I was there.
Upon elevation to High-A Dunedin, you continued your success, posting a .323 average with 34 RBIs in 164 at bats. What was it like being transplanted into a new team three months into the season? Between the 1,000 mile move and the higher level of play, what sort of adjustments did that require on a personal and athletic level?
Joining a new team with guys that I had only had limited contact with during spring training was definitely an adjustment. Naturally there is a pressure that you put on yourself to not only perform, but to fit in with guys that have been gelling for multiple months. After I got over trying to do too much to prove myself and was able to just be myself, I was able to call Dunedin home after a week. As far as adjustments I had to make physically on the field, the speed of the game was faster, with pitchers who more consistently throw different pitches for strikes. The beauty of baseball is the game remains the same from high school to the big leagues with just the speed of the game changing.
Pillar began his long 2012 campaign in April with Single-A Lansing (bleacherreport.net)
When did you learn that the Blue Jays selected you as one of the organization’s eight participants in the Arizona Fall League? What was your initial reaction to the news that your 2012 campaign would be prolonged?
It was the day the Arizona Fall League rosters came out, which I believe was in the middle of September. I came in from batting practice and looked at my phone and had a couple missed calls, text messages, and a couple tweets, which were more than usual. I read the tweets and texts that said “congrats on the AFL selection” and was at a loss for words. At that point I knew that the season I had put together did not go unnoticed and I would get a huge opportunity to play with the best prospects in baseball.
At the time of this interview you are fresh off a three-hit performance against Phoenix. That means in 29 Arizona Fall League at bats you’re sporting an incredible .448 average and .500 on-base-percentage. I understand that during the first few weeks of the season you received limited playing time, only playing Wednesdays and Saturdays. It seems like in the last week or so Rafters’ manager Matt Williams has deviated from this schedule and you’re receiving more plate opportunities. Is this change in playing time a result of your success at the plate, or was it always part of the plan?
I came into the Fall League on what they call the “taxi squads,” which is for players who are only activated on Wednesday and Saturdays. I knew that it would be a huge adjustment since I was used to playing every day, but looked at it as another challenge to overcome. Due to an unfortunate bad hop ground ball that resulted in a concussion to one of our players, I was activated off the taxi squad and was given a huge opportunity by our manager Matt Williams to receive more playing time.
I’ve heard great things about Matt Williams as a coach with the Diamondbacks. How has your experience with him as a manager been?
Matt has been great. He knows baseball inside and out and is so knowledgeable. The thing that has stood out the most to me is his love for the game. He brings so much energy to batting practice and the games every day. He is still just a big kid.
What is the daily routine of an AFL player? What did you do on your last off-day?
It depends on whether it’s a day or night game. For day games I would be get up around 7:30 and get to the field for breakfast. Next I’d get my uniform on and either take the bus to the game or go out and stretch. Following stretch is batting practice. After batting practice, depending on whether I’m playing that day or not, I would go to the weight room and lift. On days that I am playing I will eat lunch, shower, hot tub, shower then get dressed. After, I will go back to the cage for a couple more swings and head out to the field to get loose and play the game. Following the game we have a post-game meal, shower and head home. Then we do it all again the next day!
On my last day off I played golf with one of the coaches and six of the guys in a two-team, four man scramble golf match. It was really fun even though my team lost.
Teams in the AFL are composed of some of the top prospects in the minors. Obviously your current stats do not reflect any need for adjustment, but is the heightened level of competition noticeable on the field?
Yeah the game is still the same but the talent on the field is definitely noticeable. It is not only fun to compete with the best prospects, but on my off days I enjoy watching these players.
Your 2012 season began in the first week of April and won’t end until the third week in November. Your numbers do not evidence any signs of fatigue, but are you tired?
I pride myself on being in good shape and doing whatever it takes to stay on the field. The season has definitely been a long one, and fatigue has crept in from time to time. I’m not going admit that I’m tired, but I know when the fall league ends I will definitely need some time off.
I find it hard to believe that a player who sets a national collegiate record would go in the 32nd Round. Do you think front offices’ recent emphasis on sabermetrics and their undervaluation of intangibles like clutch and poise had an effect on your low draft pick?
Pillar, who was the 2012 Midwest League MVP, has had an excellent first year in the Blue Jays organization (MWL Traveler)
I think the draft system is an imperfect science, and I do think that they base too much emphasis on “potential” rather than what they see when scouting a player in person. I have no complaints about what happened in the draft because it has given me a chip on my shoulder, and has me out to prove people wrong.
Obviously you are now playing at a higher level than many players in other organizations who were drafted ahead of you. To what extent do you believe your relatively low draft pick is a “chip on your shoulder,” or a constant invitation to yourself to push yourself to the next level?
Yeah it’s definitely a chip on my shoulder, but a thing of the past now. Regardless of whether I was a 1st round pick or an undrafted free agent I would have the same desire to prove myself and be an impact player in the big leagues. Being a low draft pick will always fuel me and motivate me though.
Do you have any pregame rituals?
I don’t have any pre-game rituals. I just like to use the hot and cold tub if possible to loosen my body and I like to hit in the cage with my uniform on before going out for pre-game stretch.
What is your walkup song? Or, if you don’t have one, what would you like your walkup song to be?
We don’t use walk up songs in the AFL but in Lansing and Dunedin I used the song “Dancing in the Moonlight” by Toploader. It has been my walk up song since my freshmen year of college and will always be my walk up song.
The basketball season begins today. Having grown up in the Los Angeles Area, are you a Lakers fan? How do you like their chances this season?
I am a huge Lakers fan and am extremely excited and optimistic about the Lakers this year. However, I am also realistic and know how chemistry plays a huge factor in success and I know that it will take a little bit for the Lakers to click. But once they do, they will be unstoppable.
Thanks so much for your time. Good luck in the rest of your season. Many Jays fans have been tracking your progress. I hope to see you in Buffalo this spring and Toronto in the near future.
Follow @aaabisonsblogAFL Roundup: 10/29/12
Through almost three weeks of Arizona Fall League baseball, here are the lines for Blue Jays prospects.
The Rafters continue their season today at Phoenix. First pitch is at 12:35 MST. Should you wish, you can follow the action live here.
Ricky Romero in 2012: Outlier or Norm
It’s tough squaring Romero’s breakout 2011 campaign with last season (Zimbio.com)
Last season, Ricky Romero was a shell of his 2011 self. After his breakout 2011 season it seemed that despite his equivocal numbers in the minors, Romero, the number six overall pick in the 2005 draft (ahead of Troy Tulowitzki who propelled the Rockies to the 2007 World Series while Romero stagnated in Double-A with shoulder issues), had finally proven his worth.
Any time a starter can throw over 220 innings and record a sub-3.00 ERA in the American League East, he is worth keeping around. And that is exactly what the Jays front office did in the dog days of his 2011 breakout season: locked him in. In the middle of an August month in which Romero was 5-0 with a torrid 2.05 ERA and .91 WHIP, the Jays signed him to a five-year, $30-million deal with a lucrative club option. Who wouldn’t? It appeared that Romero would be the Jays’ ace for the next half-decade.
The first installment in Romero’s multi-year deal – 2012 – was, well, utterly terrible. I don’t want to belabor what has already received considerable analysis in various post-mortem and state-of-the-franchise pieces, so I will just give you the raw, hard numbers. Take a look at Romero’s 2012 season. For perspective, I included his 2011 numbers, too.
The Star said it best in in its early October season recap: “[Romero’s] ace status isn’t gone; [but] it is in question.” While Brandon Morrow will enter spring training as the Jays’ presumptive ace, 2011 did not erase what Romero was able to achieve in 2012. One thing’s for sure, though. In the minds of Jays fans, it certainly did cast doubt on Romero’s ability to replicate that performance in 2013 and beyond.
What should we make of Romero’s 2011 performance? Was it an anomalous showing from a top prospect that didn’t exactly pan out? A flash in the pan, if you will? Only posterity will know for sure, but Jays fans hope that it’s the 2012 version of Romero which will be remembered as the outlier.
This entry, which is certainly a digression from the central focus of this blog (although, after watching Romero last season, it’s not farfetched to imagine him with Buffalo in 2013 if he continues where he left off), will explore two questions.
First, I will look for the trends and habits that buried Romero in 2012. One diagnosis I will not accept for Romero’s implosion is the temperamental excuse: i.e. “Romero just needs to straighten his head out.” While baseball is a psychological sport and some soul-searching might benefit Romero, I am looking for data, not platitudes. Second, I will compare Romero’s pitch data from the last two seasons to see if there was a substantial loss in velocity or movement in 2012.
Between these two question, I will attempt to parse some sort of explanation for Romero’s lackluster performance last season.
I know baseball is not a sport which lends itself to simple but-for causation – in fact, my conclusion is decidedly inconclusive – but I will try to identify the main culprits. “It’s the process, not the end result,” I was told when a track season replete with 100-mile training weeks ended in a bust. I think some sort of rationale for Romero’s disappointment might provide some closure for the trainwreck that was 2012.
Romero was 9-14 with a 5.77 ERA in 2012 (MLB Reports)
Looking at Romero’s 2012 numbers, the most glaring statistic is his walk rate. While Romero walked 3.2/9 in 2012, that figure rose to 5.2/9 last season. The principle of regression to the mean does not account for this dramatic increase in free passes. In 2010 Romero walked 3.5 per 9 innings; in 2009 4.0/9 innings.
To what do you attribute this dramatic uptick in walk percentage? This might sound counterintuitive, but it’s not reducible to Romero’s inability to find the strike zone. Romero actually threw pitches in the strike zone at a higher rate in 2012 (42.7%) than he did in 2011 (42.4%). What really troubled Romero, however, was his ability to get ahead in the count and throw strikes at the right time. This is evidenced by Romero’s career low first-strike rate. While Romero had first-strike rates of 58.1% and 57.9% in 2010 and 2011, respectively, in 2012 Romero sported a first-strike rate of 53.3%. The league average is 59.9%. Woof.
When the count sits in the hitter’s favor, Romero is forced to throw hittable pitches within the zone – lest increase an already unacceptable walk-rate. Romero’s career-high zone-contact percentage of 90.9% in 2012 – almost three percent greater than the league average – is consistent with this.
In 2011, when behind in the count, Romero threw his fourseamer only 64% of the time against lefties and 53% against righties. This relatively sparing use of his fastball allowed him to mix up his pitches, keeping batters off balance. In 2012, however, instead of mixing in his secondary pitches, when the batter was ahead Romero relied on his fourseamer a whopping 81% of the time against lefties and 68% against righties.
Let’s face it: Romero’s pitch selection was predictable when behind in the count, and he was behind in the count often. Couple that predictability with a slight downtick in the velocity of Romero’s fourseamer (92.72mph in 2011 v. 91.92mph 2012) and – as we’ll explore later, decreased life – and the more disciplined, pitch-selective batters were seeing volleyballs from Romero.
Hence, the second-most dramatic difference in Romero’s statistics between 2011 and 2012: Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP). BABIP measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits, or how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits, excluding homeruns. Romero’s 2011 BABIP (.242) was an impressive .49 lower than the league average (.291). In 2012, however, Romero’s .311 BABIP Romero was .18 over the league average. Generally speaking, BABIP is not a highly-regarded metric. It is thought to be a function of defense and luck, rather than replicable skill. On a long enough timeline, it is asserted that every pitcher’s BABIP should be more or less equal.
On June 22nd Romero was 8-1 with a 4.34 ERA, but ended up losing 12 of his final 14 decisions (National Post)
But such a marked variance between Romero’s 2011 and 2012 BABIPs, coupled with the dramatic 
increase in Romero’s line-drive percentage (14.2% in 2011 to 20.1% in 2012), is telling. It demonstrates that when hitters were putting the ball in play off Romero, they were doing so emphatically. By pitching into hitter-advantageous counts, Romero found himself in batters’ clutches. Consistent with our earlier assessment that Romero was over-utilizing his fourseamer in hitter’s counts, Romero’s BABIP for his fastball is most egregious. While in 2011 Romero’s fastball BABIP was .290, in 2012 it stood at .368. With one ball on the count, that figure rose to an incredible .384.
Romero’s difficulty in getting ahead in the count fundamentally altered his pitch usage in 2012. Rather than drawing from his four-pitch arsenal, Romero seemed to aim his most reliable pitch into the zone. This defensive-minded “must-throw-strikes” approach might explain why Romero rationed his sinker so much last season.
In 2011 Romero threw his sinker 22% of the time, often as a put-away pitch toward the back-end of the at bat. The sinker worked well for Romero in that breakthrough season. Netting a groundball in 67% of balls in play, Romero accrued a .185 BABIP when throwing the hard, 
biting 92mph pitch. In 2012, however, the pitch was used infrequently, accounting for just 11% of pitches thrown – his eminently hittable fourseamer compensating for the difference (up from 48% of pitches in 2011 to 57% in 2012). Romero’s groundball rate remained relatively stable in 2012 despite the decrease in sinkers (54.7% in 2011 to 53.5% in 2012), but those groundballs obviously went for hits more often. While, among the rest of Romero’s career, his high sinker usage in 2012 is certainly an outlier, give his demonstrated success with the pitch late in the count, perhaps it would behoove him to throw it more often 2013.
I am not about to reduce Romero’s 2012 struggles entirely to his inability to throw first-pitch strikes, but I think it was a culprit. The first pitch establishes the tenor of the at bat. In a lot of ways, it dictates whether the pitcher is the hunter or hunted. Romero has quality stuff, but he doesn’t boast an overpowering, dominant pitch that can he can rely on to miss bats down in the count. Instead, as he did well in 2011, it is imperative that Romero keep hitters off-balance and in a defensive mindset so that harmless contact can be induced. This is not achieved by consistently falling behind in counts. It is common knowledge that pitchers enjoy better results when they get ahead in the count. Romero is no exception.
A career-high walk rate hurt Romero in 2012 (The Star)
To what do you attribute Romero’s early-count control issues? Is it a mechanical or psychological problem? It does not seem to be the former. A recent article at Baseball Prospectus compared Romero’s 2011 and 2012 deliveries and concluded that, in a lot of ways, last season’s mechanics were actually superior to the “exaggerated drop-and-dive” and “severe spine tilt” that characterized his delivery during his breakthrough 2011 campaign. The article concluded that because Romero’s 2012 delivery provided him with a stronger foundation for pitch repetition, it should have left him with better control and consistency. Not the case. Theory and practice do not always jibe.
So it must be psychological then, right? This would be my cue to embark on a pseudo-psychological diatribe about Romero’s lack of focus and his need to temper a volatile temperament, but I won’t. Maybe, after his exemplary 2011 showing and the addition of a second wild-card berth, the ace expectations were too much for Romero to shoulder in 2012. Perhaps Romero was simply in a funk. I have neither the data nor desire to psychoanalyze the man. Suffice it to say that if Romero wants to remain in the starting rotation in 2013, let alone lead it, he will need to throw more first pitch strikes.
Tweet by Romero with hashtag “#truth” demonstrates that Romero is already preparing himself mentally for next season
But there’s more to the story. A tendency to fall into hitter-advantageous counts could lead to a parade of horribles for a pitcher, but does it explain career low swing and miss (8.3%) and K/9 (6.2/9) rates? In part, yes, it could. With regard to the strikeout rate, obviously it takes more work to earn the K from a count that stands at 1-0 than an 0-1 count. However, there does not seem to be an apparent causal link between low first-strike and swing-and-miss rates. The metric yearns for some other explanation: depreciation in Romero’s stuff.
Did Romero simply throw more effective pitches in 2011? Let’s take a gander
Romero’s 2011 Pitch Allocations (BrooksBaseball.net)
Romero’s 2012 Pitch Allocations (BrooksBaseball.net)
As the charts show, in terms of velocity, the differences are negligible. We see slight decreases in Romero’s fourseamer (-.80mph), and sinker (-.91mph), and a more substantial decrease in his changeup (-2.15mph). His curveball remained virtually the same speed (77.79mph to 77.67mph). So it does not appear that Romero suffered from an arm strength issue in 2012 of the sort that the Yankees’ Phil Hughes or Reds’ Arlodis Chapman endured in early 2011.
Regarding movement, while horizontal movement remained steady, Romero’s fourseamer lost about an inch in vertical movement last season. This might seem like a de minimis loss of “life” on a pitch over a distance of 52-55 feet, but it’s not. An inch of late movement could mean the difference between the batter hitting the pitch directly on the screws, or fouling it to the backstop. This flatness on Romero’s 2012 fastball could help to explain why hitters teed off on the pitch with such regularity (See .368 BABIP).
But, for the most part, there was not an egregious loss of vertical or horizontal movement in Romero’s pitches in 2012. The graphics below present a nice visual on the similarity in movement of Romero’s pitches in 2011 and 2012, replete with RHH and LHH splits.
2011 Movement (BrooksBaseball.net)
2012 Movement (BrooksBaseball.net)
If Romero’s 2012 ills had to reside in his stuff, the main suspect would have to be his changeup. Romero’s swing-and-miss and whiff/swing rates decreased markedly for his changeup in 2012. While in 2011 Romero possessed a whiff rate of 23.61% and a whiff/swing rate of 44.74%, in 2012 he recorded rates of 16.57% and 35.32%, respectively.
A good changeup is largely a function of its release point and the pitch’s velocity relative to the pitcher’s fastball. It is a pitch of deception. The longer it looks like a fastball to the hitter, the better. The substantial velocity decrease in the changeup (-2.15mph) should not be viewed in isolation as a cause for the pitch’s loss of effectiveness. It should instead be viewed in relation to Romero’s fastball, which lost about one mile per hour in velocity in 2012.
Typical FB-CU discrepancies in the MLB ranges from 4mph to 15mph, with a mean of around 8mph. Romero’s discrepancy, which was 7.02mph in 2011, actually increased in 2012 to 8.37mph. Thus the discrepancies for both years hovered right around the league average, making it impossible to impute hitters’ success off Romero’s changeup on this basis.
The release point of the pitch, however, is another story. Romero’s changeup was so effective in 2011 due in part to its release point, which virtually mirrored that of his fastball. The tight cluster of delivery points in the graphic below shows that in 2011 batters could not easily discern pitches based on their point of release from Romero’s hand. Instead they were required to gauge the spin and trajectory of the ball to determine the type of pitch. A consequence to this uniformity of release point meant that batters had less time to react to the pitch and decide whether to swing.
Romero’s release points in 2011. Note the tight clustering. (TexasLeaguers.com)
In 2012, however, the uniformity in Romero’s release point became disparate. As shown by the graphic below, Romero routinely delivered his different pitches from discrete release points. This allowed hitters to detect the pitch type upon release from Romero’s hand, giving them increased time to weigh the merits and demerits of swinging.
Romero’s 2012 release points. Note the diffuse locations – especially the fastball, which is released 6-8 inches lower than the changeup
So, I have identified three main issues that hamstrung Romero in 2012. From these issues flow a variety of other problems that caused 2012 to be such a disappointment for the young lefty. First, he needs to throw more first-pitch strikes which, in turn, should remediate what was a career-worst BB/9 rate in 2012 and result in a lower BABIP. By getting ahead in the count, Romero would also be more apt to use his secondary pitches late in the count – namely his hard sinker – and avoid simply laying fastballs in the zone. Second, while his delivery mechanics appear sound, it is crucial that Romero work with pitching coach Bruce Walton to adjust the release point on his secondary pitches. The greater the uniformity and consistency in his release, the greater his deception, and ultimately, success. Third, Romero’s fastball lost some life in 2012 and could use some “giddy-up” to miss more bats. Hopefully he will toe the mound rejuvenated and ready to do work next spring. The Jays will need him to look like his 2011 iteration if they want to avoid a 20 year postseason drought.
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I am currently covering the Blue Jays’ delegates in the Arizona Fall League, as well as representatives in the Dominican and Mexican leagues.
Arizona Fall League Roundup 10/20/12: Pillar looks good, Kadish solid
Scottsdale: 5
Salt River: 3
Kevin Pillar (.375, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 4 SB) (CF): 1-3, BB
Ian Kadish (3.86 ERA, 2.1 IP, 1 SO, 1 BB) (RP): 1 IP, 1 SO
The Rafters lost for the third straight night; this time against the Scottsdale Scorpions. The Scorpions were powered by top Giants prospect Joe Panik who went 3-for-3 with a walk, stolen base, and an RBI. Of the eight Jays representatives on the Rafter’s roster, only Kevin Pillar and Ian Kadish saw action – the former going 1-3 with a walk, the latter pitching a flawless top of the 6th inning, striking out one.
In his last two outings for the Rafters, Ian Kadish has not allowed a run (battersbox.ca)
Pillar picked up where he left off Wednesday when he went 3-5 with 2 RBI. He showed great discipline at the plate, laying off pitches outside of the zone, and making solid contact on pitches in the zone. Leading off in the bottom of the bottom of the first inning, Pillar just missed his second homerun of the young season. After working the count full, Pillar found a pitch up in the zone from LHP Giants prospect Chris Gloor and rocketed it to left field. Unfortunately, the heavy desert evening air suppressed the sky-shot and Chris Dominguez camped under the ball at the warning track for a routine fly out. In his next at bat against Gloor, however, Pillar traded power for finesse, deftly poking a high-outside fastball into right field for a single.
While Pillar’s third at bat did not net him a base hit, it was arguably his best. After working the count full, Pillar fouled off four straight put-away pitches up-and-in. On the next pitch – the tenth of the at bat – Pillar hit the ball right on the screws and ripped it to the right side of the infield, directly at third basemen and Angels farmhand Kaleb Cowart.
In his final at bat, Pillar walked on four straight pitches from reliever Mark Montgomery. Without question, Pillar is seeing the ball very well right now.
In his first at bat, Pillar just missed his second HR of young AFL campaign
In the 3rd, Pillar lined softly to RF for his sixth hit of the season
In 6th, a pesky Pillar finally lines out to 3B
Pillar shows discipline in 8th, drawing a walk on four pitches
After a rough 1/3 inning debut outing against Surprise on 10/13, Kadish has been very effective out of the pen for the Rafters. On Saturday Kadish commanded a 1-2-3 inning, shutting down the bottom of the Scottsdale order. He struck out the first batter Ricky Oropesa swinging, facilitated an Alex Monsalve flyout in foul territory, and induced Indians OF prospect Carlos Moncrief to ground out meekly to 1B.
Working outside, Kadish opens the frame with a K
Oropesa gets under Kadish’s fastball, flying out in foul territory behind the plate
Kadish induces the groundball to 1B, and covers the bag to end inning
The Rafters have Sunday off, and will resume play tomorrow against Mesa, when they will try to snap their three game skid.
Arizona Fall League Roundup 10/17,10/18,10/19: Pillar of Performance, Tepera tempers ERA
While the Salt River Rafters of the Arizona Fall League have struggled as a team since my last writing (1-2), the contingent of Jays prospects have continued their strong representation of the Blue Jays organization. Because virtually all fans view the AFL as an expedient – a means for furthering the development of future Jays, and not an endgame – I will focus solely on the individual achievements of the prospects, and not the overall performance of the team, which has suffered serious offensive woes in its last two games.
10/17/12
Salt River: 12
Peoria: 9
Kevin Pillar (LF) 3-5, 2 RBI, 2 R, 2 SB
Jake Marisnick (CF) 1-4, 1 RBI
Ian Kadish (RHP): 1.0 IP, 0 ER
Kevin Pillar, 23, had a phenomenal season with Single-A Lansing this year (.322, .390, .451) – a campaign which ultimately secured him Midwest League MVP honors. Pillar has seemingly carried the momentum from his MVP summer to his new southwestern assignment. The protracted season does not appear to have exacted fatigue or lethargy on the 2011 32nd Round draftee. In fact, Pillar has redoubled the intensity in his new role with the Rafters.
In 335 ABs with Class-A Lansing Pillar hit .322 with 5 HR and 57 RBI. (MiLB)
Pillar, who is only slated to play Wednesdays and Saturdays with the Rafters, is not getting the playing time he is accustomed to. While he was a veritable starter with Dundein and Lansing, he has been platooned thus far with the Rafters. Nevertheless, when he has been given the opportunity to suit up, Pillar has made the most of it. “I’m just making the best of the opportunities,” he said recently in an official Blue Jays press release. “I’m only playing two days, so I’m looking to play hard. Whatever role they put me in, I’m trying to adjust to it.”
And adjust he has. In only 13 at bats, Pillar is hitting .385 with one homerun, three RBIs, and three stolen bases. The versatile outfielder seems to always be in the thick of the action, securing eight total bases during his meager playing time. This propensity of Pillar’s was typified by his role in the Rafters’ dramatic comeback win against Peoria on Wednesday. The Rafters were down 7-0 in the fifth, but were able to outscore Peoria 12-2 in the final four frames to complete the comeback. Pillar was an integral part of the win. Not only did he garner three key hits, driving in two; but he stole home plate.
During a sixth inning during which the Rafters had already scored four runs, Pillar reached on a single to left field and found himself at third base after a line drive single to right by Tyler Bortinick. One perfectly executed double steal later, Pillar was the fifth run of a breakout inning.
According to Pillar, because left-handed pull-hitter Andy Wilkins was at the plate, and the infield was markedly shifted to the right, he was able to take a giant secondary lead. “When I saw the catcher throw down [to second base], I was able to walk in,” said Pillar. “It was just something I did on my own, I just got a good read. At that point we still needed runs, so I capitalized on it.”
Below are pitch-tracks of Pillar’s three singles from Wednesday. He should play today against Scottsdale.
Pillar rips an 84mph slider from Drew Hayes through the right side of the infield for a two-out single
Pitch sequence: (1) 86mph cutter; (2) 98mph fastball; (3) 76mph Curveball; (4) 97mph fastball; (5) 77mph curveball; (6) BIP: RBI single through left side of infield
Pillar flexes his speed on a perfectly-laid bunt single toward the first basemen
10/18/12
Peoria: 3
Salt River: 1
Jake Marisnick (CF) 2-4, 2B, 1 SO
Deck McGuire (RHP) 1.0 IP, 0 ER
Sam Dyson (RHP) 1.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 SO, 1 SB
After permitting 12 runs in four innings the previous afternoon, Peoria pitching came back with a vengeance,with six pitchers collectively shutting down the Rafters. Of the Blue Jays delegates, CF Jake Marisick was the only position player to see action, and he made the most of it, hitting 2-4 with a double and a strikeout.
Marisnick’s first hit came in the bottom of the third. After an eight-pitch at bat which saw Jake foul off four tough pitches up in the zone, he fought off a front and center fourseamer, which ended up trickling back toward the pitcher, Robbie Erlin. The comebacker caught Erlin off-balance, and Marisnick was able to showcase his plus-speed for an infield basehit.
After eight pitches, Marisnick reaches on infield single
Marisnick’s second hit was a bit more emphatic. In the Botton of the 5th Marisnick saw two fastballs right down the middle from LHP Logan Darrell. After taking the first one for a strike to open the at bat, he ripped the second sharply down the left field foul line for a double.
Marisnick rips the fastball out over the plate down the left field foul line
10/19/12
Salt River: 0
Scottsdale: 1
Jake Marisnick 0-3, 3 SO
Ryan Goins 1-2, 1 BB
Sean Ochinko 0-3, 1 SO
Ryan Tepera 4.0 IP, 3H, 3 SO, 0 ER
The Rafters compiled 12 runs in four innings on Wednesday, yet managed only one in 19 innings through Thursday and Friday. While Marisnick and Ochinko were muted by the Scottsdale starter T.J. House who pitched 5 innings of no-hit baseball, Goins was able to muster a single and a walk in the later innings.
While House dominated the Rafters through five innings, he did not put forward the only stellar pitching performance. Jays RHP prospect Ryan Tepera went tic-for-tac with House, throwing up four scoreless innings of his own. Allowing only three hits and walking one, Tepera was able to improve his season ERA to a mediocre 5.68: a stat which once stood at 15.43 after a forgettable debut performance in which he permitted four runs in only 2.1 innings of relief work.
After fouling off four straight pitches, Tepera gets 1B Matt Curry looking at a low strike (1st Inning)
Tepera sets down CF Travis Weatherspoon swinging. (2nd Inning)
Three pitches, three strikes, two strikeouts. Tepera sets down Witherspoon for the second time, finishing his superb, four-inning effort.
The Salt River Rafters play Scottsdale today at 5:35 MST. You can follow the gamecast here.
Arizona Fall League 10/16/12 Highlights – Salt River Rafters v. Phoenix Desert Dogs
Last night the Arizona Fall League (“AFL”) game of interest to Blue Jays fans — the Salt River Rafters against the Phoenix Desert Dogs — concluded in extra frames as a 3-3 draw. I guess it would be counter to the spirit of the AFL for extra-inning games to continue indefinitely into the desert night, taxing the tendons and ligaments of young hurlers, but, for me, there is something unsettling about a baseball game ending in a tie. Regardless of my initial reaction, it is an exhibition game and the development of the athletes obviously comes first.
Here is a breakdown of how the Jays’ delegates performed. I know the pictorial presentation of every highlight might be a bit excessive, but since the games are not televised — and box scores are boring — I figured it could add some life to the recap.
Ryan Goins (SS) 1/5, 1 RBI, 1 SO
In the bottom of the 6th, Goins ripped a groundball through the right side of the infield, scoring Matt Davidson and moving Kent Matthes to third base. Unfortunately, in the next at-bat while leading off first base, Goins was unable to evade Sean Ochinko’s line-drive – resulting in the ball’s deflection to RF – so instead of advancing to second on his compatriot’s knock, he was called out.
Sean Ochinko (C) 2/5, 1 2B, 1 RBI
In the bottom of the second, Ochinko drove an up-and-in fastball the other way into left field, scoring teammate Kent Matthes from third.
Ochinko single in 2nd
In the bottom of the 6th, with runners on first and third, Ochinko found himself in a pitcher’s count. After fouling off some tough pitches up-and-in the zone, Ochinko found one over the plate and lasered the pitch the other way. Because the ball was hit so hard, Goins, at first, had little time to react and the ball actually hit him, deflecting into the outfield.
Ochinko laser to the right side of the infield made contact with Goins at first
Both Goins and Ochinko had opportunities to win the game for the Salt River Rafters in the bottom of the 8th, when they faced Aaron Barrett with Kent Matthes at second base.
On a 2-2 count Barrett offered a four-seam fastball up in the zone, but Goins could not catch up to it, failing to even advance the go-ahead run to third.
With a runner on second and only one out, Goins struck out swinging
Ochinko was able to work the count full, but on the pay-off pitch, could only muster a meek infield flyball, which was caught by the third basemen Yordy Cabrera.
With two outs and the go-ahead run in scoring position, Ochinko flew out to the third basemen
Deck McGuire 1.0 IP, 3 H, 1BB, 1 ER, 1 SO
Deck entered the game in the top of the 4th inning, relieving starter Chase Anderson. While he was able to retire Hunter Morris on a groundout to 2B Carlos Sanchez, the next batter, Edward Salcedo, sliced a line drive into the right field alley, resulting in a triple. Salcedo would score on a single up the middle by the next batter, Christian Yelich.
Despite retiring the subsequent batter Yordy Cabrera on a lazy fly ball to CF, McGuire was not quite out of the soup. After Max Stassi singled to left, McGuire issued a base on balls to Kevin Kiermaier, and the bases were left loaded with two outs.
Things were looking pretty grim for McGuire, who before the appearance had not allowed a run, but after a brief meeting at the mound with the pitching coach, Deck was able to buckle down and strikeout Hak-Ju Lee.
While McGuire’s performance last night certainly was not seemless, it demonstrated the young righty’s fortitude in tough spots.
Deck McGuire with a huge strikeout to escape the bases loaded jam
Sam Dyson 1.0 IP, 0 H, 2 SO
Dyson came on in the top of the 11th and delivered a brilliant performance in a game he probably did not expect to pitch in. In a pithy 1-2-3- inning, Dyson set down Chirs Yelich swinging, coaxed Yordy Cabrera to line out to CF Trayce Thompson, and caught Max Stassi looking at a low-inside sinker that just barely caught the zone.
Dyson striking out Yelich to open the frame
Dyson’s second strikeout of a dominant inning
The Salt River Rafters will face Peoria this afternoon. You can follow the gamecast here.
Arizona Fall League Week One Roundup: Deck McGuire Dominant
In two Arizona Fall League appearances, Deck McGuire has been stellar. (Richmond Times Dispatch)
We are one week into the Arizona Fall League (“AFL”) season and the Salt River Rafters – composed, in part, of Blue Jays prospects –have compiled a 4-2 record, one game ahead of the Mesa Solar Sox for first place in the East division. The standout performer on the Rafters for the first week has to be top Rockies SP prospect Tyler Chatwood who, in two starts, has struck out 11, allowing only six hits and touted a K/BB ratio of almost 4-to-1. Chatwood currently leads the AFL in strikeouts.
Out of the Blue Jays’ delegates, 2010 first round draftee Deck McGuire is the leading performer. In two innings of relief, McGuire has allowed no hits, striking out three and walking one.
In his first appearance last Tuesday against Mesa, McGuire entered the game in the sixth in a high-leverage situation: two outs with runners at first and third. While Deck faltered initially – issuing a seven pitch walk of Cubs prospect Matt Szcuzur to load the bases – the hard-throwing righty ultimately escaped the jam, inducing a soft groundball to shortstop Carlos Sanchez, who went to second for the force out.
While the top of the sixth was a harmless yet somewhat tumultuous debut for McGuire, in the top of the seventh he rolled. Deck opened the inning with two strikeouts. He froze first-round Tigers draftee Nick Castellanos looking at a fastball right down the middle and overpowered AFL Player of the Week Jonathan Singleton on a similar pitch. To close the inning McGuire got ahead of pinch hitter Jonathan Schoop to a 2-1 count, and was able to encourage a lineout to Jays compatriot Jake Marisnick in center field.
In his second appearance last Friday against the Scottsdale Scorpions, Deck was called in the bottom of the eight to face righties Alex Monsalve and Gift Ngoepe. He induced a weak flyout to left by Monsalve and struck Ngoepe out on four pitches — the final strike catching the lower-inside corner.
On the whole, it was a promising first week for a vaunted yet enigmatic McGuire who showed great promise in 2011, but disappointed last season. Let’s hope he continues his fall success and carries any momentum forward into spring training.
Through six games, here are the lines on the rest of the Blue Jays’ seven delegates.
Position Players:
OF Kevin Pillar: 2/8, 1 RBI, 1 HR, 1 SO, 1SB,
OF Jake Marisnick: 4/15, 2 2B, 0 RBI, 6 SO,
SS Ryan Goins: 0/8, 1 SO, 1BB, 1R, 1 SO
C Sean Ochinko 1/7, 1 SO, 1 R
Pitchers:
RHP Sam Dyson: 3.0 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 HR, 3 SO,
RHP Ryan Tepera 2.1 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 1 HR, 1 SO
RHP Deck McGuire: 2.0 IP, 0 H, 0ER, 1BB, 1 SO
RHP Ian Kadish: .1 IP, 2H, 1 ER, 1 BB,
The Rafters face Phoenix today at 6:35 MST. While you cannot watch the game, you can follow the gamecast here.
Arizona Fall League Profile: Sam Dyson (RHP) Converted Reliever
Dyson struggled during his brief 2/3 inning stint with the Jays
The Arizona Fall League (“AFL”) commenced this week and the Salt River Rafters – composed of the Jays’ seven delegates and other top prospects from the Diamondbacks, Nationals, Rockies, and White Sox – are off to an auspicious 2-0 start. That’s right. If watching the postseason has simply been a reminder of what the highly-lauded 2012 Jays were not, you can follow the organization’s lifeblood as they strut their stuff in spring training facilities along the Sunbelt.
Since I want to begin posting these entries with some regularity and – in accordance with Commissioner Selig’s no-news-during-playoffs edict – there have been minimal Blue Jays/Bisons developments, I figured I could profile one of the Blue Jays’ AFL delegates each day. I can’t guarantee I will post daily, but I am hoping to post an entry at least every other day.
I think there are two main audiences for this blog. First, there are Jays fans looking for the down-low on when their much-anticipated prospects could don the red, white and blue and contribute in the AL East. Second, there are Bisons fans that are more attuned to the here and now; i.e. whether the Las Vegas transplants can compete for an International League Championship.
I’m not saying that both of these demographics are mutually exclusive; there will obviously be some readers who don’t fit neatly within either category. You can obviously root for the Bisons’ immediate success while at the same time valuing the long-term development of the players. But by-and-large, readers of this blog are looking for gratification at varying times: some immediate, others delayed.
As such, I will cater these profiles to both audiences. Not only will I inquire into what each player has to offer today, but I will try to gauge their overall trajectory: when can we expect this player to be big-league ready, if at all? For each player, I will explore three questions.
Where have they been? This encompasses pedigree/draft information, as well as prior accomplishments.
What do they have? This includes skill-sets and tendencies, as well as current level of performance.
Where are they going? This is a nice way of asking if they will ever enjoy success in the majors.
This first entry will focus on RHP Sam Dyson who, regrettably, had a pretty rough first outing for the River Rafters. Yesterday Sam pitched 2 innings in relief, collecting two strikeouts, but surrendering 2 earned runs; the fatal blow coming off a 420 foot bomb to dead center by Astros 1B prospect Jonathan Singleton. We can hope for a better performance from Sam in the weeks to come.
Where has Sam Dyson been?
Dyson as a South Carolina Gamecock
Dyson, a former South Carolina Gamecock, was drafted in the 4th Round by the Jays in 2010. The euphoria of winning a College World Series title probably subsided quickly for Sam in 2011, when he had to sit out the entire season due to Tommy John surgery. While he saw 2/3 of an inning of big-league action this season – surrendering three runs – Sam spent the majority of the season with Class A+ Dundein, where he posted decent numbers (2-0, 4.08, 1.40), and Double-A New Hampshire where he excelled (2-2, 2.38, 1.17). In fact, during his first 15 games working out of the New Hampshire bullpen, Sam compiled a stellar 0.75 ERA, the likely stimulus for his brief promotion to the majors.
What does Sam Dyson have?
This might come as a surprise given his dominance out of the pen for New Hampshire last season – the marking of an overpowering strikeout pitcher – but Sam is not a strikeout guy. At least not anymore. Instead, he’s a pure sinkerballer whose bread-and-butter is inducing groundball outs.
At South Carolina, Sam had a different approach to the game. He was the number two starter and sported a diverse repertoire, including a four-seam fastball that hovered around 94-95mph. Gone are those days. Dyson can still rear back and throw a low-90s fastball – usually in the 91-92mph range – but it is the sharp dive on his sinker that has allowed him to transcend within the organization in one season’s time.
During his minor league stint last season, Sam converted 350% more ground outs than flyouts. Keeping the ball on the ground is a redeeming attribute for any pitcher, but unfortunately Sam doesn’t miss many bats. Sam averaged only 5 K/9 with Dundein, 4.37 K/9 with New Hampshire and an overall strikeout rate of around 12%. That means, seven out of every eight batters will put the ball in play; not the sort of guy you want relieving with runners on base.
Nevertheless, Sam’s success last year speaks for itself. What he lacks in the inability to miss bats, he compensates in his ability to coax harmless groundballs in big spots. From a full-breadth starter to a dominant reliever, Sam has adapted to his circumstances and carved out a niche-role within the organization. There remains a glimmer of possibility that Sam regains the arm-strength he lost from the Tommy John procedure but, assuming he doesn’t, the complexion of his game has fundamentally changed. While his move from the rotation to the bullpen might have originated as a rehabilitative expedient – monitoring his innings and re-strengthening his arm – Sam will probably remain in the bullpen.
He probably won’t be getting the call in high-leverage situations with runners on base, but he throws strikes (1.57 BB/9 with Dundein, 2.98 BB/9 with New Hampshire) and can rack up scoreless relief innings.
Sam has a minimalist delivery, which ostensibly places a lot of stress on his arm.
Sam’s selection for the AFL might seem a bit peculiar. He is not a top prospect. His health is also a concern. If the basis for his move to the bullpen was to ration his innings, why convert his comeback season into a protracted 8 month relief marathon? He is fresh off of Tommy John surgery.
So, what gives? I think the Jays are taking a calculated risk with Sam. Recognizing his susceptibility for injury, scouts nonetheless need a larger sample size of performance to determine whether Sam can contribute to the Jays in 2013. The AFL will serve as a litmus test for Sam Dyson’s 2013 assignment. After just one successful season in the farm system, Dyson touts a resume that indicates major league potential. How he fares against beefed up AFL lineups will indicate whether that potential can be realized in 2013.
Where is Sam Dyson going?
Dyson pitching at Yankee Stadium
If Sam Dyson stays healthy, he could become a fixture in the Blue Jays bullpen. His major league debut – consisting of two dismal outings last year – left much to be desired, but given the Jays solid infield defense (See Edwin Encarnacion .994 fld%; Kelly Johnson .983 fld%; Yunel Escobar 982 fld%), his propensity to generate groundball outs could be a major boon to a staff that surrendered an MLB-leading 204 homeruns this season.
Of course his performance in the AFL will play a substantial role in his initial assignment, but I project Sam beginning the season at AA-NH and concluding it with the Jays.
Opening Day Rotation
Due to a barrage of injuries, Aaron Laffey pitched over 100 innings for the Jays in 2012.
A prevailing sentiment among the Blue Jay’s fanbase – as well as the organization’s front office – is a strong need for starting pitching. In a team press release, Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos addressed the issue head-on. “The focus [this offseason] is really on the rotation” stated Anthopoulos. “It doesn’t mean we’re not going to look to get better, offensively or in the bullpen, but you see teams that have pitched but didn’t score as many runs and [remained ] in contention.” A cursory examination of the expanded standings confirms Anthopoulos’ observation. Where the Jays were a respectable sixth in the AL in runs scored with 716, they surrendered 784, fourth-highest in the league. If the Jays want to realize their postseason aspirations in 2012 – a feat likely requiring over 90 wins – the starting rotation certainly needs to be shored up.
What does this all mean for the Jays’ new Triple-A affiliate? Who will throw the first pitch of the Bisons’ season? It is over four months until spring training, so any speculation is, well, speculation; but let’s engage in a little conjecture on this brisk October morning. Obviously, because Bisons personnel are always at the disposal of their parent organization, the logical starting point is the Jays’ rotation.
Realistically, there are only two slots that are secured in the Jays rotation for 2013: Brandon Morrow (10-7, 2.96 ERA, 108 SO in 2012) and Ricky Romero (9-14, 5.77 ERA, 124 SO in 2012). Despite being restricted to only 124.2 innings pitched due to an oblique injury, Morrow was the lifeblood of the Jays rotation in 2012. When he went down in mid-June, the Jays were in the thick of the Wild Card chase, only 2.5 games back. During his absence, the Jays foundered, accumulating a dismal 25-39 record, and dropping to over 13 games behind the second wild card berth. His return to the rotation brought stability and reliability every five days, and in the final stretch following his August 25th return, the Jays managed a very decent 17-19 clip. Morrow is the Jays’ ace and mainstay. A sub 3.00 ERA in the AL East is superlative. Barring an injury or significant free agent acquisition, he will get the nod on opening day against the Indians at Rogers Centre.
Romero took a giant step back in 2012 – his Earned Run Average of 5.77 nearly doubling from 2011, when he averaged 2.92. Nevertheless, despite a retrograde year, Romero is a promising young pitcher within the organization and his prior successes likely solidifies his place in the rotation.
Two slots confirmed. Slot three is where the uncertainty begins. No date has been set for the return of Drew Hutchison (4-3, 4.60 ERA), who sustained a season-ending injury in mid-June. Same story for Kyle Drabek (4-7, 4.67 ERA, 47 SO), who underwent his second Tommy John procedure last season. Both young hurlers showed glimpses of promise during their truncated 2012 campaigns, and would probably figure in as four-five starters. Each will begin their 2013 seasons with the Bisons – Drabek a bit before the All-Star Break, Hutchison a bit after.
Despite an overall disappointing year, Henderson Alvarez (9-14, 4.85 ERA, 1.44 WHIP) is the apparent number three starter at this point. Jays fans will hope for a comeback year from Alvarez who, by most accounts, has solid stuff. Averaging just 3.8 K/9, however, the main issue is that he allows too many balls in play. While his groundball rate of 57.0 % improved last year – a good sign for anyone pitching-to-contact – when batters did lift the ball on Alvarez, it was frequently bad news. Almost twenty-percent (18.2 %) of fly balls left the yard. More aggressive use of his fastball/changeup tandem could help that situation.
Carlos Villanueva, Aaron Laffey, and J.A. Happ round out the remainder of the Jays’ 2012 starters. Villaneueva (7-7, 4.16 ERA, 1.27 WHIP) is free-agent eligible, and expected to test the waters. The Royals have reportedly scouted him and expressed interest in him. For our purposes, we will assume he walks. Houston export, Happ (10-11, 4.70, 1.40 WHIP) is arbitration eligible in 2013, and is expected to return. Laffey (4-6, 4.56 ERA, 1.36 WHIP) is arbitration eligible, too. He played a valuable role in 2012 eating some innings for an invalid Jays staff, but if the Jays want to push 90 wins in 2013, it is unlikely he will remain in the starting rotation.
While that rounds out the viable in-house options for 2013, it is not a full survey of possible arms. In terms of free agent signings, the Jays have been relatively quiet in recent years. However, the underwhelming 73-89 record the Jays accrued in 2012 could serve as an impetus for change. The time to hesitate is through. The high expectations for 2012 resulted in a sour outcome for the Blue Jays’ fanbase. If the Jays want to avoid alienating its fanbase, they will need to assemble a team that can compete in the AL East in 2013.
Not only is the Jays’ payroll expected to climb from the $75.5m spent in 2012 – affording Anthopoulous the funds to seriously contend for top free-agents – but the front office may be willing to exchange some of its top prospects for a frontline starter. While the Jays were willing to part with top prospects last winter, Anthopoulous wasn’t able to seal the big deal. He indicated last week that he believes he wasn’t able to induce a big transaction because other clubs weren’t willing to part with their stud for low-minor prospects who had not demonstrated they could contribute at “the show.” Since those top prospects have now matured within the organization – seeing success at the AA level – their ability to contribute in the majors is no longer an if, but a when. According to a Jays press release, Anthopoulous now believes those top prospects could induce an exchange for a veritable ace. Aaron Sanchez, Justin Nicolino and Noah Syndergaard – who all exceled at low-A Lansing – have all been identified as potential trade-bait.
Free agent starting pitchers that come to mind this winter include Zach Greinke, Edwin Jackson, Shaun Marcum, Brandon McCarthy, Ryan Dempster, RA Dickey, Kyle Lohse, Hiroki Kuroda, Dan Haren (Angels have club option for 2013 which will likely be exercised), and Anibal Sanchez. They are all expensive options – with Greinke likely commanding a long-term contract, averaging over 20m per year – but if the Jays want to compete in the short-term, they will need to pay upfront. As far as potential trade candidates, the Marlins, Phillies and Dodgers are all teams loaded with talented starters and high-payrolls that might be looking to unload. The Phillies might be looking to unload Halladay, and a return to Rogers Centre could revitalize the two-time Cy Young winner. Hopefully 2012 was an aberration for Halladay and not the beginning of a rapid decline. Also, the Miami Marlins experiment is over and Josh Johnson or Ricky Nolasco might be on the block. Nolasco would be a gamble in the offensive-laden AL East, but a healthy Johnson could thrive in Toronto. Given Anthopoulous’ stated focus on the rotation and the increase in payroll, I will assume that the Jays acquire a frontline starter of the Marcum-caliber this offseason.
That leaves us with a tentative starting rotation of
1. Brandon Morrow
2. Expected trade or free agency acquisition
3. Ricky Romero
4. Henderson Alvarez
5. JA Happ
What does this mean for our Buffalo Bisons? It means that Hutchison and Drabek, both of whom were fixtures in the Jays rotation in 2012, will either displace Alvarez and/or Happ, or remain with the Bisons deep into the summer. After he is rehabilitated, I project Hutchison earning a spot in the rotation, with Happ being relegated to long-man duty. While the raw stats from Hutchison’s modest 58.1 IP in the majors aren’t particularly compelling, he made huge strides in his final six starts before the injury, touting a 3.49 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Once recovered, the young 23 year old right-hander could become a staple in the Jays’ rotation.
As for Drabek, I’m not so sure. With Villaneuva pitching effectively in his wake, Drabek’s prolonged absence from the rotation in 2012 might have actually worked to the Jays’ advantage. Drabek doesn’t factor to be an appreciable improvement from an Alvarez or Happ, so don’t be surprised to see him linger in Buffalo until possibly the September call-up.
I hope this early discussion does not seem like a digression. I know the purpose of this entry was to examine the Bisons’ starting rotation. It is important to remember, however, that the personnel on the field at Coca-Cola field will always be a function of the needs and wants of the Jays. It goes without saying that the Bisons will be on the field in 2013 to compete for an International League championship. The team’s other purpose, however, is to provide a springboard for players into Toronto. Because of this, it is always important to be mindful of the Jays’ status and future plans.
Now I will cut to the chase. Come April, your Bisons starting rotation could look like this:
1. Aaron Laffey (4-6, 4.56 ERA, 1.36 WHIP w/ TOR) (3-5, 4.52 ERA, 1.52 w/ AAA-LV)
2. Sean O’Sullivan (14-7, 4.34 ERA, 1.39 WHIP w/ AAA-LV, AAA-OMAHA).
3. Shawn Hill (9-2, 4.52 ERA, 1.53 WHIP w/ AAA- LV).
4. Bill Murphy (8-5, 4.38 ERA, 1.55 WHIP w/ AAA-LV).
5. Chad Jenkins (1-3, 4.50 ERA, 1.34 WHIP w/ TOR) (5-9, 4.96 ERA, 1.54 WHIP w/ AA-NH)
Laffey, 27, was the number one starter for Triple-A Las Vegas before elbows started popping in Toronto. He will probably reassume that role in the spring. Laffey seemed to take some flak from fans this season, but he really played an invaluable role for the organization amidst crisis. Laffey was able to eat up a lot of innings (100.2) and keep the Jays in some close ballgames. Be it at a major or minor league level, he still has a lot to contribute to this organization.
O’Sullivan, 25, was traded from the Royals last June for cash considerations. While his numbers with the Royals’ Triple-A affiliate left much to be desired (5-4, 6.92 ERA, 1.86 WHIP), his numbers with Triple-A Las Vegas were nothing short of exemplary. In 89.1 innings with the Area 51s, O’Sullivan posted a 9-3 record, replete with a 2.82 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. While Cashman Field’s capacious center field – measured at 433 feet – might have bolstered these stats, O’Sullivan has certainly earned a spot in the rotation.
Hill, 31, joined Triple-A Las Vegas in mid-June after dominating in the independent Atlantic League. After compiling a scoreless innings streak of 27.2 innings, the Jays purchased Hill’s contract from the York Revolution. Hill is perseverance embodied. He suffered from serious circulation issues which ultimately required him to undergo two Tommy John surgeries and a stem cell procedure. After posting a quality 9-2 record with Las Vegas, he was called up to Toronto for the final week of the season for a bullpen stint. In his only appearance he shut down the Yankees, pitching three scoreless innings in relief and earning the win. It should be fun to see Hill in action this season.
Murphy, 31, rejoined the Blue Jays organization last season after a two year stint with the Lotte Giants of Japan. With Lotte Murphy went 14-11 with a 3.81 ERA and 158 Ks in 196 innings. He was a third-round draft pick for the A’s in their seminal “moneyball” draft of 2002 and has been traded at various points of his career for the likes of Mark Redman and Steve Finley. Obviously Murphy has distinguished himself to scouts through the years. Murphy throws an 89-90mph fastball, an 80mph slider, an 84mph changeup, and a cutter that hovers around 80mph. Last year, his fastball and changeup accounted for over 80% of pitches thrown.
With Andrew Carpenter (6-3, 3.38 ERA, 1.37 WHIP) now with the Mets organization and Scott Richmond (11-7, 5.61 ERA, 1.53 WHIP) electing free agency, the Bisons’ fifth starter will probably be promoted from Double-A New Hampshire. There are three main candidates: Yohan Pino (10-8, 3.56 ERA, 1.13 WHIP @ AA-NH), Chad Jenkins (5-9, 4.96 ERA, 1.54 WHIP), and Deck McGuire (5-15, 5.88 ERA, 1.55 WHIP w/ AAA-NH).
Obviously, at the Double-A level, Pino’s numbers shine. Throwing 134 innings of sound baseball, Pino was undoubtedly the ace of the Fisher Cats last season. While he was essentially lit up when he was elevated to Las Vegas on two occasions (0-2, 22.18 ERA), his 9.1 inning sample size at that level is unrepresentative. After dominating at the Double-A level, Pino should probably get an honest shot as the fifth starter in the Bisons rotation. Given his meltdowns at the Triple-A level, I am not sure he will get that opportunity in April 2013.
Twenty-three year old Deck McGuire definitely took a major step back last season. McGuire was an up-and-coming force in the organization when he started with Single-A Lansing in 2011. In his debut he went 7-4 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in over one-hundred innings pitched. While pitching soundly with New Hampshire after his 2011 elevation (2-1 4.35 ERA in 20.2 IP), last year was disappointing.
McGuire, drafted 11th in the first round of the 2010 amateur draft, is a top prospect. At 6’6” and 235, McGuire is strong yet tactful. Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus has described McGuire as “a finesse pitcher packed into a power body.” Scouts have projected him as an eventual number three or four starter at the major league level. While his numbers at Double-A New Hampshire last season (5-15, 5.88 ERA, 1.56 WHIP) were definitely forgettable, they are not representative of what McGuire brings to the table. He can be an impact player for the Jays by season’s end. Expect to see him in Bisons dubs at some point – probably by midseason – but not on the opening day roster.
First round draft pick Chad Jenkins had a stellar stint with the Jays in 2012. In 32 innings at the major league level, Jenkins posted a 1-3 record, 4.50 ERA and 1.34 WHIP line. I project Chad Jenkins as the fifth starter for the Bisons in 2013. Having shown the ability to compete and succeed at the major league level, in the event of an emergency call-up, the Jays front office would probably rather see him down the road in Buffalo than castaway in New Hampshire.
Thanks for hearing me out. A million things can happen in the next six months, so don’t hold me to anything.
